Your average edge per trade — positive or not.
Educational tool only — not financial advice. Verify figures with your broker.
The Expectancy Calculator is a trade-statistics tool that computes your average profit or loss per trade — your mathematical edge — from your win rate and your average win and loss sizes. It answers the question: on average, does one trade of this system add to or subtract from the account, and by how much?
Expectancy = (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss), where loss rate = 1 − win rate. Equivalently in R terms: expectancy = (win% × avg win in R) − (loss% × 1R). It is a probability-weighted average of the two outcomes.
Any positive expectancy means the system's average trade added value over the sample measured; higher is better only relative to your costs and variance. This trading expectancy calculator reports the raw number — it does not label a level as 'good' or guarantee it repeats.
Win rate is only how often you win; expectancy combines win rate with how much you win versus lose. A system can win 40% of the time and still have positive expectancy if its wins are large enough relative to its losses.
Not necessarily. Expectancy is a backward-looking average of the sample you enter; small samples are dominated by luck, and future win/loss sizes can differ from the ones you typed in.
Keep in mind: Expectancy is an average over the numbers you supply — it says nothing about the order of wins and losses, the drawdown along the way, or whether your past win rate and average win/loss will hold in the future.