Trades and months to dig out of a hole.
Expectancy is an average — the recovery path usually includes further drawdown along the way. Order-of-magnitude estimate only.
Educational tool only — not financial advice. Verify figures with your broker.
The Drawdown Duration Estimator is an educational tool that estimates how many trades and months it would take, on average, to dig out of a specific dollar drawdown given your average profit per trade. It answers 'at my typical per-trade result, roughly how long is this hole?'
Expected trades to recover = drawdown amount ÷ average profit per trade. Expected months to recover = that trade count ÷ trades per month. It's a simple average-based projection: it treats each trade as contributing your mean expectancy, ignoring the run-to-run variance around that mean.
Divide the dollar drawdown by your average profit per trade — that's the number of average-outcome trades needed. A drawdown duration calculator does this for you and then converts it to months using your trading frequency.
Because expectancy is a long-run average, not a per-trade guarantee. The actual path almost always includes further losses and flat stretches along the way, so the true recovery is typically longer and bumpier than the straight-line figure.
Use your net average across all trades — total net profit divided by total number of trades — not just your winners, or the estimate will be far too optimistic.
Keep in mind: Expectancy is an average, so this is an order-of-magnitude estimate only — the real recovery path usually includes further drawdown along the way, and the tool says nothing about whether your average profit will hold up in the future.