The worst streak you should EXPECT, not fear.
This is the statistically TYPICAL worst streak, not a ceiling — roughly half of all sequences contain a longer one. Size positions accordingly.
Educational tool only — not financial advice. Verify figures with your broker.
The Expected Consecutive Losses Calculator estimates the statistically typical longest losing (and winning) streak you should expect over a given number of trades at your win rate. It answers 'what is the worst losing run I should plan for?' — framed as an expectation to prepare for, not a fear or a ceiling.
The expected longest run of an outcome with probability p over N trials is approximated by the standard order-statistics estimate log(N) / log(1/p), where p is the loss rate for the losing streak and the win rate for the winning streak. It gives the typical maximum run length rather than a hard limit.
Use the maximum consecutive losses calculator: it applies log(N)/log(1/lossRate) to turn your win rate and trade count into the typical longest losing run you should expect.
No. It is the typical worst streak — roughly half of all sequences of that length contain an even longer one, so you should size positions to survive beyond it.
Because if a streak is statistically typical, betting that you will dodge it is how accounts blow up. Planning for the expected worst run keeps sizing honest.
Keep in mind: This is the statistically typical worst streak, not a maximum — about half of all sequences contain a longer one, and it assumes independent trades at a fixed win rate. Size positions to survive past it, and never read it as a promise about your results.